A New Threshold for Urban Civilization

The New Threshold of Urban Civilization

Throughout human history, "the city" has long been an exception. As recently as 1950, more than three-quarters of the global population still lived in rural areas. According to the World Urbanization Prospects 2025, released by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, this structure has fundamentally reversed—by 2025, 45 percent of the global population of 8.2 billion are urban residents, a share more than double that of 1950. The figures may seem modest, yet they conceal the most profound spatial revolution since the agricultural revolution.

The significance of 45 percent lies not in majority versus minority but in the approach of a critical threshold. When nearly half of the world's population is concentrated in limited urban spaces, cities cease to be merely a form of habitation and become the core nodes of economic production, political organization, cultural creation, and ecological consumption. The UN report covers 237 countries or territories, spanning from 1950 to 2050, reminding us that urbanization is a long-term structural process rather than an incidental short-term fluctuation.

The geographical distribution of urbanization is redrawing the coordinates of the world. Early urbanization was a product of industrialization, concentrated in Europe and North America. Over the past few decades, however, the center of gravity of urbanization has visibly shifted toward Asia and Africa. Emerging cities in the Global South are absorbing populations at different speeds, scales, and models. This means that the next phase of global urbanization will be defined by developing countries. Alongside this process come the restructuring of the international division of labor, global capital flows, and competition over infrastructure, making cities important vehicles of geoeconomics.

The relationship between cities and states is also undergoing subtle restructuring. In the past, cities were seen as components of the state, their functions subordinated to national strategy. But as cities have acquired the capacity for connectivity within global networks, they have gradually become actors that transcend borders. From climate commitments to digital governance, from migrant integration to technological innovation, cities have begun to assert an independent voice on the global agenda. Horizontal networks of competition and cooperation among cities now coexist alongside the vertical system of nation-states.

Looking toward 2050, urbanization will enter another turning point. Existing cities must address aging infrastructure, climate risks, and housing inequality, while emerging cities face the challenge of avoiding the replication of outdated development models. Traditional urban strategies have often centered on growth, but the next phase demands resilience as the core, balancing inclusivity, ecological boundaries, and governance capacity. Cities are no longer growth machines; they should be vessels of civilization.

45 percent is a fact, but also a signal. It means that human civilization stands at the threshold of urbanization. Futurists and policy researchers alike must recognize that the world's urban system is reshaping the international order. National borders remain important, but connections between cities will become another main thread shaping the global future. At such a threshold, we need to redefine urban strategy—otherwise, we will be left behind by a new round of civilizational transformation.